Планы 12 пятилетки предусматривают ускоренное развитие гидроэнергетики. В Китае наблюдается рост энергопотребления, но страной взяты жесткие обязательства по снижению выбросов парниковых газов на единицу продукции. В результате форсируется развитие атомной, ветряной и гидроэнергетики, и суммарная установленная мощность ГЭС должна достичь к 2020 г. 400 Гигаватт. В 11 пятилетке амбициозные планы строительства ГЭС были реализованы лишь на треть, в частности в связи с тем, что многие проекты не прошли экологическую экспертизу. В частности, на главном русле Амура планируется построить 8 ГЭС с общей установленной мощностью 8200 мегаватт.
Но в последние месяцы наметился прорыв в «убийстве рек для добычи электричества», и экологические НПО крайне озабочены этой тенденцией, ибо вне поля зрения остались экологические и социальные проблемы и потеря невозобновимого ресурса - живых рек. Кроме того, строительство ГЭС провоцирует создание новых энергоемких производств, и порочный круг замыкается. Китайские НПО противостоят массовому гидростроительству путем предъявления требований о раскрытии экологической информации, организации участия населения в принятии решений, экспедиций на места для сбора информации о проектах ГЭС, выборе приоритетных для защиты участков (как национальный резерват по охране рыб на р. Янцзы), сотрудничая с международными конвенциями и международным сообществом.
The 2011 is the beginning of the 12th Five-
Year of China. According to media reports, it is made clear in the 12th Five-Year draft plan that, during 2011~2015, the hydropower should be developed actively under the precondition of good ecological protection and resettlement.
It was described in the 11th Five-Year Nation Plan that "In due course develop hydropower on the basis of the ecological protection".The word changes from the past "due course" into the current "active", and it means the coming onrush develop of hydropower in China. The future looks bright, but in the behind, there are many unknown environmental risks hidden. China is increasingly approaching the limit in use of "hy- dropower potential" after which serious damages to river ecosystem and biodiversity and other environmental risks are likely increase dramatically, the life of the community around rivers will be affected or changed, and the community culture will be destroyed, or even ruined. In addition, in the process called "kill rivers to get power", risks of geological disaster have been also ignored.
From "order" to "active"
Hydropower supporters have two main reasons.
On the one hand, the rapid development of Chinese economy has continued growth in electricity demand. China Electricity Council statistics show that, the average annual growth of the total electricity consumption is 11.09%, and is expected to be 8.5% by 2015. In 2020, Chinese per capita GDP will reach 10 thousand US dollar, and it will annually consume about 4.5 billion tons of coal equivalent, 15% of which comes from the non-fossil energy, about 675 million tons. Hy-
dropower accounted for more than half of the non-fossil energy, about 400 million tons of coal- equivalent, and the total hydropower installed capacity would reach to about 400 000 MWt.
Chart 1
Electricity Utilization Formation of China in 2009
Amountbillion kilowatt-hours
year-on-yearincrease%
Total Electricity Utilization
3643
5.96
the whole industry
amount
3185.6
5.14
primary industry,
94.7
7.86
secondary industry
2699.3
4.15
tertiary industry
392.1
12.11
B. urban and rural households consumed amount
457.1
11.87
Data source: China Electricity Council
On the other hand, China also has the responsibility and pressure for tackling climate change to achieve in the 2020 decrease of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP down by 40% - 45% compared to 2005, and the non-fossil fuels takes about 15% of the primary energy consumption.
To achieve this reduction commitments, the Chinese government upgrades industries to minimize the energy consumption of unit GDP firstly, reforestation and improved forest management reduce carbon emissions secondly, and large- scale develop and utilization of hydropower, nuclear energy, wind energy, raw Materials and solar and other non-fossil energy sources thirdly. Compared to the high cost of wind power and solar energy, hydropower and nuclear power become the first choice of Chinese power enterprises. And then the hydropower technology is better than nuclear power, so that it's the matter of course to develop hydropower actively.
Many Chinese environmentalists and NGOs do not agree with such views.
Time
Government Office
Policy Issue
Main plans and objects
2007.4
NDRC
Energy Development during National Eleventh Five-Year Plan
In 2010, China's objective on total primary energy consumption is 2700 million tons of coal-equivalent; Breakdown between coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear power, hydropower and other renewable energy is 66.1%, 20.5%, 5.3%, 0.9 %, 6.8% and 0.4% of primary energy consumption respectively
2007.6
The State Council
The Comprehensive Plan onEmission Reduction and Energy Saving
In 2010, the energy consumed for each 10,000 yuan of GDP goes down to 1 ton of standard coal equivalent and carbon dioxide emissions reduce to 22.95 million tons; the total discharge of major pollutants by 10% during the 11th Five- Year Plan Period; In 2020, carbon dioxide emissions of per GDP dropped 40%~45% compared to 2005; non-fossil energy accounts 15% of primary energy consumption; forest area increase 40 million hectares and forest reserves increase 1.3 billion cubic meters, compared to 2005.
2009.11
The State Council
Executive Meeting of theState Council
In 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP dropped 40%~45% compared to 2005; non-fossil energy accounts 15% of primary energy consumption; forest area increase 40 million hectares and forest reserves increase 1.3 billion cubic meters, compared to 2005.
Firstly, the logic between hydropower development and energy savings is questionable. At first, hydropower is not clean energy, and carbon emissions are not representative of all the environmental issues and ecological functions of water, species diversity and a series of ecological problems and many social problems caused by large dams. Next, Chinese hydropower development is not based on real energy demand, but more importantly for GDP growth and fiscal needs. Once the hydropower project is com
pleted, more energy-intensive industries would be constructed to take advantage of the power, a vicious cycle. Again, to achieve emission reduction targets needs participation of every sector and level of society and public, not only the hydropower sectors. During the "11th Five-Year" National Plan period, Chinese emission reduction goes down by 20% per units GDP, and the emissions reduction of six energy-intensive sectors is remarkable. In the future, every trade has the task of reducing emissions, so that the emissions reduction performance will be better.
Secondly, hydropower development is driven largely by profit, bringing great social injustice and undermining Chinese international image.
It is estimated that hydropower annual production will reach about 1.2 TWt*h in 2020, and the electrovalence will be increased to 0.8 to 1 RMB(Yuan) per Wattat that time, so that the hy- dropower industry can get a average annual gross revenue about 1~1.2 trillion RMB from electricity sales. In general, the investment in hydropower can be recovered in 10~15 years, and the hy- dropower enterprise can get 10 times of the premium price in the stock market, as well as there are many other gray and invisible benefits in the hydropower development. However, considering the cost, the compensation of internal migration is on the low side, and loss of communities, environmental system and geological risk basicly are not reflected truly. Even when a disaster occurs, the cost is burden by all public by nationwide fund-raising. As you see, there is a huge and delicious hydropower cake.
Hydropower development is adversely affecting a scarce resource, particularly destruction of unique large natural rivers. As a hydropower company, those who mastered the development rights of major rivers will control the resources. At present, the hydropower development pattern of main rivers has been basically established, and several large hydropower companies divide up hydropower projects of main hydropower bases. Driven by huge profits and lack of effective management of the central government, many hydro- power projects start without confirms, undermine the approval system, and challenge the government authority, causing great social injustice.
Internationally, China is one of the signatory countries on Convention on Biological Diversity, Protection of World Cultural and Natural Heritage Convention and so on. The Chinese government cannot shirk its international responsibilities, but the hydropower development affects performance of these responsibilities and even international relations with neighboring countries seriously, undermining the Chinese international image to be a responsible country.
Accelerated Development in 13 hydro- power bases
Amount
2010
2015
2020
Hydropower Base
the theoretical hydropower development potential (MW)
Development storage and rate (MW, %)
Development storage and rate (MW, %)
Development storage and rate (MW, %)
Jinsha River
58580
1800
3%
17000
29%
32100
55%
Yalong River
25310
3400
13%
14500
57%
18500
73%
Dadu River
24600
6300
26%
16900
69%
21400
87%
Wu river
10790
3580
33%
8500
79%
10100
94%
Upper Yangtze River
33200
26120
79%
27500
83%
28300
85%
Nanpan River and the Redwater River
14310
4980
35%
9180
64%
11920
83%
Lantsang River
25600
5970
23%
14700
57%
19600
77%
Middle Yellow River
20030
6900
34%
12500
62%
14000
70%
North Stream of Yellow River
6410
1630
25%
3430
54%
5790
90%
Xiangxi
5900
1760
30%
3100
53%
5190
88%
Fujian-
Zhejiang-
Jiangxi
10920
3300
30%
5670
52%
8450
77%
Northeast China(mostly Amur basin)
18690
3730
20%
8020
43%
11310
61%
Nu River
21420
180
1%
3000
14%
7200
34%
Total
275760
69650
25%
144000
49%
193860
70%
In 2004, the Prime Minister Wen Jiabao requested for strict examination on hydropower projects. During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period (2005~2010), 33 key hydropower stations were listed to start, with total hydropower installed capacity 74021 MW. However, installed capacity authorized in 2007 was only 2340 MW, in 2008 - 7240 MW and in 2009 - 7370 MW, respectively. By the end of 2009, only 11 hydropower stations had been approved for construction in China, only 33% of the key list, and the total hydropower installed capacity was 20030 MW, only 27.1% of the planned.
It is said in the Report on Chinese Electric Utility Industry of the 12th Five-Year Plan issued by China Electricity Council that, they will accelerate hydropower development in seven hydropower bases, the Yangtze River, Wujiang River, Nanpanjiang River,Red-water River, the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River and the north stream, Xiangxi, Fujian-Zhejiang- Jiangxi and the Northeastern Section. Developments in all above bases will be completed in 5~10 years. On the other hand, they will focus on developing 6 hydropower base in the western region, the Jinsha River, Yalong River, Dadu River, Lancang River, Nu River, upper reaches of Yellow River, promote hydropow- er developing in the Brahmaputra in Tibet and other neighboring countries, such as Myanmar.
In the Northeast Hydropower base, the plan is composed by Amur River, Mudanjiang River, the second Songhua River, Yalu River (including the Hun Stream) and Nen Rvier.
Objectives of development of Amur River are power generation, flood control and navigation, but mainly for power. At present, Chinese companies plan 8 dams ( there are 9 potential locations) in the upper and middle flow of Amur River. Total installed capacity could reach 8200 MWt, annual production -27 000 million kW*h. We don't know exactly where these hydropower stations will be, except the farthest down in Taipinggou Valley of Hegang Prefecture. The cascade development for Amur River is still in the planning.
Yalu River, including the Hun Stream, is under a joint planning of China and the North Korea. There will be 12 steps, and 4 large and medium hydropower stations have been built, 2 stations are in preliminary designing.
How NGOs can respond to this challenge
Disregarding the social controversy , the hy- dropower industry has forced accelerated development of rivers in Southwest China , impacting all policies from the central to the local government. Under the name of promoting economic development and carbon emission reduction and energy saving, they are actually destroying the very basis of ecological environment, social stability and sustainable development, which are contrary to the Scientific Concept of Development promoted by the central government and irresponsible for the country and her people.
Facing the massive hydropower development written into the 12th Five-Years Plan, Chinese environmentalists and NGOs started and plan the following activities:
Use the government environmental information publicity (disclosure requirements) and closely follow the project approval and the building process of hydropower projects. For example, Ludila Station in Jinsha River was stopped by the MEP in 2009 because of unsatisfactory environmental impact assessment.
Gather information from all aspects and debate with hydropower supporters, struggle for the right of speech, to make the pros and cons of hydropower well-known for the general public and obtain greater popular support. For example, Green Earth Volunteers and Green Rivers do many field work to expose effects of Hydro- power Project in Nu River and others.
Affect the policy of the central and local government by ways of public participation, hearings and activities, and promote the change of the hydropower approval and management and call for a more rational good governance of hydropower.
Focus on key areas and carry on protec-
References: tions on the points, such as the National Nsture Reserve for Fish Protection upsteam of planned Xiaonanhai Station, the Tiger Leaping Gorge, Nu River, Amur River and so on, using national laws and regulations and international conventions.
Promote the model of community participating management in small watersheds, to find local solutions to energy issues and the appropriate model of economic development.
Call for emission reduction and energy saving on all social aspects, to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption through joint efforts of families, communities, enterprises and so on.
Promote the government and companies to find alternatives power to hydropower and optimize energy management and use system and relational market models.
Carry out international exchanges and cooperation, especially in international river issues, such as Nu River and Amur River.