COP21 Agreed To A Climate-Changed World

By Nnimmo Bassey (@NnimmoB), Global Greengrants Fund Board Chair and Director of Health of Mother Earth Foundation

The Paris climate talks have come and gone, and like most other COPs before it, the response has been varied. Some have applauded the Paris Agreement as a giant step for humankind. Some are claiming a big win. Others take a holistic look at the future scenario the agreement presents and are aghast that after two decades of climate negotiations, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and the Paris Agreement does not indicate any urgency in tackling this fundamental problem even though it does indeed recognize the urgency of the crisis.

The Agreement speaks of a desirability to work towards a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C while aiming also at a target “well below 2 degrees C.” We wonder how COP21 quantifies the difference between 1.5 and “well below” 2 degrees. And which may be greater in this language of diplomats?

Nnimmo talks with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now!

The scaffold on which the entire COP21 hung were the infamous Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). While the COP itself notes that the figures submitted by countries do not on the aggregate point a way to cooling the planet, it nevertheless stayed the cause of this clearly wrong path. The INDCs, if implemented, will lead to a temperature increase of over 3 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, wiping out communities of people and sparking unpredictable repercussions. The Agreement recognizes that INDCs will also be achieved through removals of greenhouse gases–through sinks and offsets, etc. Thus, the path of the INDCs taken by the COP is an irredeemable, self-inflicted injury that subverts real efforts to tackle the climate menace.

Applauding the COP for being a success because, for the first time, all nations have indicated commitment to tackling climate change on the basis of the INDCs indicates a total disregard of the disregard of climate science and equity as epitomized by this pathway.

Head In the Oven, Feet In the Refrigerator (or That Sinking Feeling)

We note that the Agreement speaks repeatedly of “sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases.” These are wedges to keep the door open for all sorts of carbon offset schemes including REDD and all its variants, yet-to-be-proven carbon capture and storage, geoengineering and such. We can, thus, expect intense externalizing of climate action on climate victims as well as carbon colonialism–which may include what is referred to in the Agreement as “internationally transferred mitigation” (Article 6) rather than direct in-country carbon emissions reduction.

At the launching of a publication of the No REDD in Africa Network at the Climate Forum during the COP, Firoze Manji, the pan-Africanist, described carbon offsetting as putting your feet in a refrigerator while your head is in the oven and hoping to achieve a median temperature for your body. Very apt indeed.

Demonstrators at the Louvre.

Climate finance remains grossly insufficient, with targets of $10 billion yearly up to 2025 (COP15 said 2020), when this would shift to $100 billion yearly. That these amounts are insufficient can be seen from the fact that the United States spent about $68 billion to handle the aftermath of just one hurricane, Hurricane Sandy. Considering that rich countries spend up to $2 trillion annually in needless wars underscores that what we see are specious power plays and climate apartheid. And, by the way, who accounts for the millions of tons of greenhouse gases released in warfare–not to mention destruction of lives and wreaking of havoc on nations and territories, especially those that are fossil resources rich. It is clear that the paucity of the Green Climate Fund is not a lack of funds but a determination by rich countries to avoid historical and current climate debt.

Transition?

The Agreement makes a passing mention of “just transition” with reference to “workforce” and the creation of decent work. Again, we see that the COP is so enamored with dirty energy or fossil-driven energy forms that it could not dare name fossils or a call for just transition towards renewable energy. In fact, “renewable energy” is mentioned only once in the preamble to the Agreement and in the context of developing countries.

Nnimmo with Just Transition champions Naomi Klein, Bill McKibben and 350.org’s Payal Parekh.

From where did analysts get the idea that the Agreement has declared the obituary for fossil fuels?

With 2020 as the pivot year for the voluntary emissions reduction, it is clear that between now and then the remaining atmospheric carbon budget may already have been taken up. Whether that happens or not, delayed actions until 2020 presents the planet and all beings on it a very dire future that many will not survive. That also breeches the right of Mother Earth to exist, her right to maintain her cycles and speaks poorly of our understanding of intergenerational equity.

In sum, COP21 betrayed the poor, the vulnerable and all those already suffering the impacts of climate change. It set the stage for a climate changed world, and did little about averting it.